And according to the latest report published in 2022 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2022), due to increased variability and intensity of rainfall, changes will occur in the hydrological cycle that may affect the availability and temporal distribution of river flows, which directly impacts the predominant source of electricity in the country.
Therefore, anticipating forecasts of the effect of climate change on river flows is essential for the country's energy stability.
With this in mind, Enacom researchers developed a study that proposes a methodology for measuring the impact of climate change on hydropower assets. Keep reading to learn more about the research.
Understand the steps of the Enacom researchers' study on hydropower and climate change
1. Detailed asset modeling
First, the hill chart of the generating units, the operating ranges, and the operational and environmental constraints, among other factors, are considered in order to build a Digital Twin of the hydropower plant.
2. Model validation
In this step, the digital model of the hydropower plant is validated using real data from past operations.
3. Climate modeling
The third step consists of performing climate modeling of the asset to generate future hydrological scenarios, including the use of rainfall-runoff models and bias correction using measured historical data.
4. Scenario generation
In the fourth step, during scenario generation with all variables entered, scenarios with future energy prices are generated for the future interval of interest.
5. Generation optimizer
In its final step, the solution uses an energy generation optimizer to maximize the asset's financial result under the price scenarios considered in the previous step.
During the research, Enacom specialists used 2,000 price scenarios to measure expected revenue and the associated risk, using the CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) metric, and considering one reservoir-based plant and one run-of-river plant.
The study also proposed metrics to measure the capacity of each asset, assessing the relationship between revenue and risk for each plant relative to installed capacity and the project's assured energy, and the reservoir-based plant showed the better result.
The paper on the methodology developed by the Enacom research team was submitted to the 30th Industrial Engineering Symposium (SIMPEP), held in November 2023. The full study will be available on the event's website after it takes place.
See it in practice: CEMIG: up to 46.6 hm³ less water per month in the Três Marias plant schedule, in a study.